Providing Analytics and Feasibility to the Gaming and Leisure industry

Paul Girvan, the CEO of PKC Gaming & Leisure Consultancy, has been conducting feasibility studies for the gaming and leisure sector for 35 years during which time he has consulted for national, state, and city governments, commercial gaming operators, and Tribal gaming entities As a pioneer in the 1990’s of the nascent gaming consulting industry, Mr. Girvan has been intimately involved with the expansion of gaming in the US from the initial development of riverboat casinos, state by state expansion of land-based gaming, to the more recent development of regional casinos and the introduction of I-Gaming.

Currently, Paul is working to connect tribal gaming entities with UK iGaming ‘white label’ providers enabling them to develop thier own iGaming business free of commercial operators.

In the 1990’s in response to the need to develop a model to address competition from multiple casino locations Mr. Girvan was one of the first to apply the concept of a “gravity model” to casino revenue projection, having developed this approach from his prior work in urban transportation planning. Since then, Paul has developed and refined the approach, applying the model to statewide analyses and individual property projections where competition plays a significant role. Since its development the “gravity model” approach has become the gold standard for the industry.

As the casino industry matured and competition intensified, operators sought advantage via the addition of amenities. To assess the efficacy of these, Mr. Girvan developed a series of revenue and demand models based on demographics and known behavior patterns to assess amenities as diverse as: a spa, movie theater, entertainment venue, meeting space, retail, outlet mall, water park, theme park, ski park, hotels, F&B, and RV park. A key feature to each of these models is that they specifically address the issue of “incremental casino revenue” providing the client with a complete understanding of the value of a particular amenity. This incremental gaming revenue analysis is based on proprietary information developed over decades from actual casino operations.

 Prior to forming PKC Gaming & Leisure consultancy Paul was Managing Partner for The Innovation Group where he managed all projects out of the New Orleans office.  During his long tenure with The Innovation Group, he consulted for such clients as the states of West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio, and New York.  Private sector clients also looked to Mr. Girvan to provide statewide analyses for markets in Kentucky, Texas, Georgia and Florida. In Pennsylvania, his analyses provided the basis for the development of the gaming industry in that state and the subsequent expansion to include table games.

Paul is an adept analyst with rich experience in providing revenue projections, sizing recommendations, amenity package assessments, operating pro formas,  ROI analyses and economic impact assessments.  Often these projects included repurposing and amenity expansion, and without fail incorporated an assessment of incremental casino revenues.  Clients included, but was not limited to, Sands Corporation, MGM, Wynn, Caesars, Isle of Capri, Margaritaville, and Rush Street Gaming.

In addition to commercial operators, Mr. Girvan has been active in Indian Country having consulted for the Pokagon Band of Potawatomi Indians, the Mashantucket Pequot Tribal Nation (Foxwoods), Confederated Tribes of Grand Ronde, Poarch Band of the Creek Indians, Seminole Tribe of Florida (Hard Rock), Osage Nation of Oklahoma, and the Chitimacha Tribe of Louisiana, among others. These and many other tribes have turned to him for his honest analyses of the feasibility of critical tribal investments in the gaming industry.

Mr. Girvan was a key consultant for a decade to the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation where his work identified substantial unmet demand, and laid the foundation for the recent and ongoing expansion and privatization of gaming. He also conducted detailed analysis of the Fallsview casino and was the primary feasibility consultant for Casino Windsor and its expansion project. 

Paul has consulted around the globe having conducted studies in south and central America, Canada, Tanzania, Estonia and in the UK. Mr Girvan was the lead consultant to the Government of Bermuda as it studied the legalization of gaming.  Gaming legislation subsequently passed the legislature and is currently being implemented.

Recently his focus has broadened to include I-Gaming, projecting statewide I-Gaming revenue for Pennsylvania, Michigan, New York, and New Jersey. In New Jersey where initial revenues where much less than many projected his prognosis on revenues proved to be the most accurate.

Mr. Girvan was involved in the complicated analyses of “mini-casinos” and the bids from existing operators for these licenses and locations in Pennsylvania, a study of Gateway casino markets prepared for potential investors, and assisted the City of Springfield in its negotiations with MGM Springfield. Mr Girvan also led a multi-disciplinary team of consultants reviewing all aspects of casino development for the Mayor of Philadelphia that determined the locations and agreements with the City that has defined the gaming industry there. Mr. Girvan was also involved in the early licensing process for Harrah’s New Orleans.

Most recently Mr. Girvan has taken on the role of consultant on a broad range of topics for a major operator seeking one of the three downstate casino licenses in New York.

As part of a loose grouping of experienced individual consultants with varying areas of expertise Mr. Girvan can tailor the ‘team’ to the project at hand without the expensive overhead of traditional consultancies.

Mr Girvan has written numerous professional articles and has been widely published in Global Gaming Business.  Mr Girvan is a frequent speaker at G2E, NIGA and other industry conferences and was a former owner of the I-Gaming North America conference. Mr Girvan is the Tribal Gaming Editor for I-Gaming Business North America and is a frequewnt contributor to IGB.

Mr Girvan is married with one child and lives in the French Quarter in New Orleans, though temporarily residing in the UK.

Mr. Girvan has a B.Sc. in Geography and Geology (Subsidiary Degrees in Economics and Geophysics) from the University of Keele, Staffordshire, England and a MURP from The University of New Orleans.